Investing

ETFs have remained open for business during the coronacrisis, while credit markets were largely frozen. But ETFs were still able to cope with unprecedented outflows, providing investors with badly needed liquidity. However, this may just be a Pyrrhus victory for the index providers.

The coronacrisis has hit the real estate sector hard. Much of the damage could prove to be permanent, as underlying trends are now accelerating and consumer behaviour could change permanently, says Michael Gobitschek, manager of the Skagen M2 fund.

‘Will we still travel as much as before the virus outbreak In two years’ time, for example? And we may be working from home a lot more’, Gobitschek asks.

Fund managers expect more companies to cut their dividends, following the example set by banks. However, many companies still are perfectly capable of maintaining their dividends, according to DPAM’s Laurent van Tuyckom.

Following Christine Lagarde’s earlier ‘rookie error’, the newest ECB stimulus package did not come as a surprise for Ella Hoxha, manager of the Pictet Global Bond Fund. Are European bonds now out of the danger zone? ‘The worst should technically be behind us though we’re not out of this crisis yet. The recession hasn’t even begun.’

Credit markets have been hit hard across the board. ‘Exiting at normal prices is now virtually impossible because there is hardly any liquidity.’ Only ETFs can still be easily sold, resulting in dramatic price declines. Can the ECB’s latest support package restore calm?

March is not even halfway through, but has already presided over the largest fall in the price of European high-yield bonds since October 2008. The BofA European Currency High Yield Index is already in the minus 8% this month, but the unprecedented fall in prices also offers opportunities. Within Europe, I would now rather invest in Italy than the UK or Germany.

The decision of the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates once more and restart QE was expected by investors. But not on a Sunday afternoon. Asset managers characterise the sudden decision as ‘a defining moment’, for more than one reason.

The Fed and the Bank of England responded to the coronavirus fall-out with emergency rate cuts of 50 basis points. Now, all eyes are on the ECB.

The Fed’s rate cut was not the most clear-cut answer to the corona crisis, says Hendrik Tuch, head of fixed income at Aegon Asset Management. 
But he understands the decision.

Investors did not respond to the Fed’s surprise 50 basis points rate cut with a relief rally. To the contrary, markets closed almost 3% lower as investors interpreted the rate cut as a warning the macroeconomic situation is likely to worsen.
 
Fed president Jerome Powell stated shortly after Wall Street opened that the negative effects of the coronavirus are slowly becoming visible.