Asset Allocation

Europe’s economy is heading for recession. The war in Ukraine, an energy crisis, rising inflation and rising interest rates are increasingly starting to hamper economic growth. With cyclical sectors in particular are expected to be affected, as they are the most sensitive to the state of the economy. However, the impact of an economic slowdown can be different for each sector. In any case, the price performance of the various sectors this year shows no in any case, no unambiguous picture and there is also a large dispersion in returns.

Quintet sees little cause for celebration when the world rings in the new year, the Luxembourg private bank said in its 2023 outlook. The year ahead will be one of two halves: once central banks stop raising interest rates, a new cycle of uneven, global growth will begin. High-dividend and low-volatility equities may provide an opportunity to reduce portfolio risk, the firm’s investment officers said.

European investors this year found safety in short-term US debt and the dollar. This week’s Top 5 by Morningstar takes a look at the performance of US government bond funds in the year to date.

Central bank gold reserves have risen to their highest level in nearly half a century. Particularly emerging market central banks bought the precious metal big this year, influenced by a strong dollar and international sanctions against Russia.

High-yield bonds are not equal. In the US market this year, the difference in spreads between bonds with credit ratings of CCC and below versus BBs rose from 4.6 percent to 9 percent.

After two consecutive red quarters, global high-yield bond funds closed the third quarter with handsome gains. Yet it is premature to speak of a trend reversal.

Funds investing in emerging market bonds lost for the third quarter in a row when measured in dollars, but made a small gain in euros. 

For emerging markets, the third quarter of this year was almost the exact mirror image of the second quarter. The MSCI EM index recorded an underperformance compared to the MSCI World index, mainly due to a solid loss for Chinese equities. In Latin America, some markets actually made up for second-quarter losses in the past three months. Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine continues to weigh on Eastern European markets.

Many investors are on the fence about re-entering the badly battered bond market when the bottom may be near. The smart ones will want to enter the market well before interest rates hit their peak, says Michael Gitlin, partner and head of fixed income at Capital Group.

Infrastructure is not immune to the current economic malaise, but it is important to isolate macroeconomic variables for each investment. “Analysing sectors or asset classes is not enough: you have to analyse each asset to determine its macro impact.”

So says Heiko Schupp (photo), infrastructure fund manager at Columbia Threadneedle, in an interview with InvestmentOfficer.be.