Asset Allocation

The Federal Reserve’s predicted interest rate peak between 5.5% and 5.75% has left many asset managers uncertain about their rate forecasts for the second half of the year. However, Franck Dixmier, the global CIO at Allianz Global Investors, is undeterred by this ambiguity, stating, “Monetary policy is really starting to bite now.”

“Active management is a sham — no wonder my returns are suspect,” writes Stuart Kirk, FT columnist and former portfolio manager, in his latest attack on active management. However, he conveniently overlooks one important detail.

More exposure to low-volatility European equities, high quality bonds in the U.S. and a bit in liquid hedge funds, and less to high quality European corporate debt, lower quality corporate bonds and gold. These are the portfolio shifts Luxembourg-headquartered Quintet Private Bank advises to its clients in its latest midyear investment outlook.

May saw a 6.1 percent increase in consumer prices in the EU compared to the previous year, the lowest level since February 2022 and slightly lower than economists’ predicted 6.3 percent. In the United States, inflation has now dropped below 5 percent, the lowest level in two years.

Panic over banks and falling treasury yields have gold prices flirting with an all-time high again. In the short term, a quicker turn by the Federal Reserve may be the deciding factor, but the precious metal’s real success lies deeper. “Gold deserves a structural role in the portfolio.”

Gold prices briefly climbed past the 2,006 dollar per troy ounce level last week. With that, the August 2020 all-time high of 2,075 per troy ounce is getting closer.

Green bonds are becoming mature and are a good diversification in a portfolio because they provide above-average transparency, according to Julien Bras (photo), bond manager at Allianz Global Investors. 

Bras argued that green bonds are an interesting way to get more diversification in bond portfolios. “The main argument for me to include green bonds in portfolio is their transparency compared to traditional bonds.”

Rabobank said it took advantage of the sharp fall in prices of deeply subordinated bonds of European banks to buy additional cocos. BlueBay Asset Management is also betting on the risky bank bonds after Credit Suisse coco shareholders saw their money go up in smoke.

After a formidable start for the capital markets in 2023, followed by the “SVB correction”, a consensus on the sense and nonsense of the 60/40 formula still remains to be found. Investment Officer takes stock again.

In a turbulent year like 2022, investors needed refuge, which was almost nowhere to find. Investments in oil showed outstanding performance, as one of the few areas in the financial markets. And then there were precious metals. Not all metals performed equally well though, and positive returns were mostly measured in euros.

Dutch pension funds, a major category of investors in global markets and clients to many Luxembourg real estate funds, last year suffered losses on their real estate investments after many years of rising values. Their investments in real estate funds, however,  delivered positive numbers.