Asset Allocation

The erratic first half of 2022, which sent leading stock market indices into bear market territory, has clearly left its mark on the fund universe. Fund houses active in the bond markets saw a general outflow of investor money, and although on balance equity funds attracted investor interest, large differences could be seen at the category level. Active funds did not appeal to investors, while the least sustainable investment funds were also out of favour.

Europe’s energy supply is under severe pressure, and the 8.9% inflation rate in the eurozone seems to be cushioned only by sharp increases in interest rates, which could push the European economy into recession. Is Europe still the continent you want to be in as an investor?

Although the European economy had a relatively good second quarter, with economic volumes up 0.7% on the first, concerns for the second half of the year remain high.

With a recession looming in Europe, investors again are on the lookout for suitable safe havens. Ethenea’s investment strategist Andrea Siviero, who manages the firm’s 60-million-euro Hesper Fund - Global Solutions together with Federico Frischknecht, believes the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen are well placed to take up this role, as the Fund has1a position in December 2023 Euribor futures that anticipates the ECB won’t be able to raise rates next year as much as currently discounted by the market.

With a first-half loss of 7 percent when measured in euro, the GBI-EM Global Diversified Index, the benchmark for emerging market bonds, was by no means the worst student in its class.

The past six months have been one of the toughest for bonds ever. Especially long-dated bonds have taken a beating. The Bloomberg Euro Aggregate 10+ Year index fell by no less than 23.6 percent while the Bloomberg Euro Aggregate 1-3 Year index was “only” 2.9 percent lower.

As US companies revise their earnings forecasts en masse and fears of recession-induced defaults increase, some investors feel it’s a good moment to get into high yield corporate debt. The key question: what will be the nature of the upcoming recession?

“A rare opportunity to get into high yield,” noted bond strategist David Furey of State Street Global Advisors in a market review last week. “A fantastic buying opportunity for US high yield,” said Dutch investment advisory firm Candoris. 

While Canadian and Australian pension funds are set to increase their investments in infrastructure assets in the years ahead, their European counterparts are slow to recognize the benefits of this asset class, potentially missing out on additional returns they could achieve for their clients.

This year is a tough one for tech stocks. Even companies like Dutch-based ASML, Europe’s leading high-tech company and the world’s main supplier of machines for the semiconductor industry, have seen their share prices fall by more than 45 percent this year, despite record profits. For investors, these are not the times to be very courageous, because the really big risks have not yet been discounted. 

Nearly two-thirds of investors in Europe are concerned about greenwashing, even though EU regulation has been in place for more than a year, a new survey released on Thursday showed. More than half of all European investors remain very concerned about the lack of transparency and reported data.

An investment portfolio today should consist predominantly of US assets. Impact investing is sustainable investing 2.0 and long duration assets continue to struggle. That is what independent investment expert Jan Longeval said during the closing debate of Portfolio Day, which Investment Officer organised in Brussels last Thursday. 

Quintet Private Bank sees “significant long-term opportunities” in a world that has experienced multiple ‘black-swan’ type events – Covid-19, the invasion of Ukraine and a miniature version in China’s decision to lock down Shanghai in late March. Presenting the firm’s outlook, Ilario Attasi, group head of investment advisors, and Nicolas Sopel, senior macro strategist, said investors can still find opportunities in tech stocks, among others.