Asset Allocation

After two consecutive red quarters, global high-yield bond funds closed the third quarter with handsome gains. Yet it is premature to speak of a trend reversal.

Funds investing in emerging market bonds lost for the third quarter in a row when measured in dollars, but made a small gain in euros. 

For emerging markets, the third quarter of this year was almost the exact mirror image of the second quarter. The MSCI EM index recorded an underperformance compared to the MSCI World index, mainly due to a solid loss for Chinese equities. In Latin America, some markets actually made up for second-quarter losses in the past three months. Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine continues to weigh on Eastern European markets.

Many investors are on the fence about re-entering the badly battered bond market when the bottom may be near. The smart ones will want to enter the market well before interest rates hit their peak, says Michael Gitlin, partner and head of fixed income at Capital Group.

Infrastructure is not immune to the current economic malaise, but it is important to isolate macroeconomic variables for each investment. “Analysing sectors or asset classes is not enough: you have to analyse each asset to determine its macro impact.”

So says Heiko Schupp (photo), infrastructure fund manager at Columbia Threadneedle, in an interview with InvestmentOfficer.be.

Gold prices have been struggling since the beginning of the year, quoting below $1,700 per ounce, definitely indicating a downward trend. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve raised rates by 75 basis points in another move to a range of 3 to 3.25 percent. 

This will probably be the worst but also the best year for bonds ever. Rising interest rates and credit spreads are causing hefty price losses. Inflation is a bond investor’s worst enemy and it is skyrocketing. The fact that interest rates and credit spreads are rising fast is good for bond investors in the long run. Panic and volatility always create opportunities.

It has been a challenging period so far for both equities and bonds in 2022. The era of loose monetary policy is over as inflation races around the world, leaving policymakers with no choice but to raise interest rates and scale back bond buying programmes.

Central bank interest rate hikes seems to have had their desired effect, with signs pointing to the end of the very high inflation of late, but, according to three chief investment officers at M&G Investments, the world’s economy isn’t out of the doldrums yet, especially because of Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine.

Europe’s biggest fund manager, Amundi, is telling investors that it is time to get back into the bond market. And it believes that reports of the death of the 60-40 portfolio are greatly exaggerated. That theory merely has spent time in the freezer, said Vincent Mortier, Amundi’s chief investment officer.

“Bond is back, and not only on screen,” Mortier jokingly told journalists in a media call on Tuesday.