Asset Allocation

The fact that most active investors do not succeed in beating the market does not mean that the market cannot be beaten. “It is not that complicated at all,” said alpha investor Jens Peers, CEO and CIO at Mirova Asset Management, part of the Natixis group. 

Of all actively managed investment funds, some 85%, after expenses, perform worse than the market. It’s a statistic that fuels the eternal debate between active and passive investors.

Although growth in Luxembourg’s alternative investment funds market slowed in 2020, it remained significant, bringing the total of alternative assets managed in the Grand Duchy above the 1000-billion-euro mark for a first time, according to new data released by financial regulator CSSF. 

Hedge funds with a macro or multi-strategy focus were among the best performing funds in the first quarter, shielding investors from geopolitical turmoil, high inflation numbers and shifting monetary policies, according to Preqin, a privately-held London-based investment data company that provides financial data and information on the alternative assets market.

The firm said that, in a historical context, first quarter performance was “certainly disappointing but hedge funds managed to guard investors against major pullbacks.” 

Rising interest rates and continuing tension surrounding the Ukraine conflict have brought the issuance of high-yield corporate bonds in Europe to a virtual standstill. “The size and speed of the current interest rate increase is causing companies to stop going public and the market to virtually dry up,” said one specialist.

For emerging countries, the first quarter of 2022 was dominated by the war in Ukraine unleashed by Russia. Equities from Russia itself suffered particularly badly. Various index compilers, including MSCI, have removed Russian shares from all their regional indices. At a price of 0, the MSCI Russia index has suffered a loss of 100 percent this year.

Gold gained ground in March. The war in Ukraine has put the precious metal back in the spotlight for investors. But even as the war seems to have been priced in, and interest rate hikes are expected to accelerate, gold remains in demand. What is going on here?

When it comes to the prospect of a recession, and a possible prolonged period of stagflation, the jury is still out, even in Europe. Although in agreement on a deteriorating economic outlook, major asset managers such as BLI, Pictet and JP Morgan hold diverging views on what’s next. For investors, corporate earnings are now seen as the next waypoint.

The first quarter of 2022 was one of the toughest in decades for investors with a neutrally balanced portfolio, writes Bloomberg on the basis of its own data. The S&P 500 fell by 4.9 percent, US treasuries lost 5.6 percent and investment grade even fell by 7.8 percent. 

Japanese shares were hot in the 1980s, but the bubble has deflated mercilessly in the decades that followed. The high point that was reached in 1989 was never reached again. Especially funds in value shares seem to have fallen victim to the disinterest of investors in recent years. Now Japanese value stocks are hitting back.

Japanese value stocks in particular performed relatively well in 2021 and have continued to strengthen in the first two months of this year. The 1980s marked the heyday of the Japanese stock market.

The performance gap between value and growth is still significant since the beginning of the year, but growth is starting to catch up. With the Fed on a rate hike course, and with the possibility of a shallow recession in Europe and the US, growth stocks may paradoxically start to outperform again.