Asset Allocation

Small-cap stocks in Europe seem to be making a comeback. After two years of declining relative valuations, the usual premium these stocks hold over large caps has vanished, even turning into a discount at the end of last year. However, recent weeks have seen this discount narrow significantly.

The suggestion that the Federal Reserve will maintain elevated interest rates is wavering after Tuesday’s unexpected declines in U.S. inflation figures, much to the delight of stock and bond markets.

Italian government bonds face a downgrade to “junk status”. Nevertheless, after years, the interest of foreign investors in this “ticking time bomb” is increasing.

The prolonged exodus of foreign investors from Italian government bonds has halted this year. According to research by Amundi Investment Institute, the asset class saw positive inflows of 35 billion euros in the first seven months, driven by foreign interest.

Bonds are now recognised as a legitimate investment alternative, long overdue for acknowledgment. Peter De Coensel, CEO of Degroof Petercam Asset Management (DPAM) since 2021 and a seasoned bond market specialist, discusses this resurgence in value.

De Coensel highlights a dramatic shift in bond markets, noting a return to valuations not seen in nearly two decades, occurring in three distinct phases.

Despite the resilience of the American economy, investors in Treasuries and bonds harbor stiff hopes for a quick Fed pivot during the third losing year. “But we aren’t there just yet,” said Fidelity’s global fixed income CIO Steve Ellis. 

Senior loans, currently the highest-yielding bonds, witness substantial inflows in tracker funds. 

Once a rising star among investment options, private credit now faces headwinds as defaults increase and traditional banks re-enter the fray as competitors.

JP Morgan’s recent decision to incorporate India into its Emerging Market bond index has ignited institutional interest in the world’s leading emerging market government bond. However, full acceptance still has significant barriers to overcome.

Superlatives are raining down on India, which seems to have passed China as the promised country for emerging market investors. “It looks like the stars are really all aligned this time.”

High yield bonds are positioning themselves cautiously in the spotlight as recession fears recede and credit quality improves. While junk bonds perform best during periods of robust economic growth, a region that’s closely flirting with a recession is seen as having the most potential.