Democrats are set to win but the timing is awful
The Democrats are on track to win the U.S. House of Representatives in 2026. For investors, that is usually just noise. Now, however, even the most committed progressive has to admit the timing is terrible. Things were going so well.
Chart of the week: few US jobs, how so?
There was eager anticipation for a new US labor market report. And not only because the flow of macro data from the United States is still lagging as a result of the shutdown. The US labor market is what can still obscure the real reason why rates were cut by another quarter point. But that argument does not hold either.
Morningstar: Comgest vs JPMorgan in Japan largecap growth equity
Morningstar has refined its Japanese equity framework as persistent style dispersion forces investors to reassess growth-focused fund selection in Japan.
Fed and politics
In financial markets, 2026 will not only be a year of economic normalization, but also a test of the institutional fabric of US monetary policy. Renewed political polarization and the approaching expiration of central banker Jerome Powell’s term are creating a rare convergence of uncertainty for the period ahead.
Geopolitics emerges as a structural market risk in 2026
Geopolitical risk once entered markets through sudden shocks. Going into 2026, leading investment managers and economists see a more persistent source of pressure: structural forces reshaping a world that is fracturing.
Europe’s banks have very little room to absorb shocks
Europe’s banks are heading into 2026 with solid balance sheets, but with less room for error. After an unusually long credit cycle, risks are building just as the economic environment becomes more uncertain, according to Scope Ratings’ European Bank Outlook 2026.
Robeco: “AI is improving at lightning speed, but it is still in its early stages.”
Artificial intelligence has rapidly climbed to become a leading force in financial markets. Yet according to Mike Chen, Head of Next-Gen Quant Research at Robeco, this is only the beginning. “From a microscopic insect to the intelligence level of a cat in six years. That is how fast AI is evolving. The pace will only accelerate, with far-reaching consequences for markets and for the investment industry itself.”
Europe thé comeback category for 2026, according to asset managers
Around one-third of asset managers active in Europe expect a comeback for European equities in 2026. They consider stocks from the region to be inexpensive and expect the planned large-scale European government investments in areas such as defense and infrastructure to act as a catalyst.
‘Coffee prices are excessively high’
Volatile prices make the coffee market an attractive arena for trading. However, downside risks currently dominate, experts warn.
The balance of trade equilibrium
Last week, China’s trade surplus crossed the threshold of one thousand billion dollar for the first time. In the first eleven months of 2025 alone, China exported one trillion dollar more than it imported. It is a milestone that both illustrates the export strength of Chinese industry and exposes the deep problems in China’s growth model, while further fueling calls for protectionism in the rest of the world.