Geert Dekker

Markets still assume that the war in the Middle East will not escalate into a prolonged conflict, and that is good news for investments in emerging markets. After the initial attacks by the US and Israel on Iran, several markets in Asia and South America took significant hits, but over the past two weeks they have shown resilience.

Investors in evergreen funds apparently did not fully grasp what they were getting into when they entrusted their capital to these “semi-liquid” vehicles investing in private markets. After Blue Owl, two large private credit funds managed by Blackstone and Blackrock were hit last week with a surge in redemption requests.

With euro stablecoins and a digital euro, Europe wants to counter the looming dollarization of the European economy. In consumer payments, the sovereignty of the euro is already under pressure, the European Central Bank warns.

The European ETF market grew in January by a record 46.9 billion euro. In the shadow of that growth, a price war is taking place: mainstream ETFs are now being offered with an expense ratio of 0.03 percent. Will Europe soon welcome the “free” ETF, as in the US?

With the Dutch House of Representatives (Tweede Kamerlid) passing the Actual Return Box 3 Act last week, the Netherlands will introduce “paper gains” as a basis for taxation starting in 2028. That is entirely unique in Europe. The patchwork of solutions Europe has devised for this tax will therefore gain a new addition.

Asset manager L&G is planning to set up hybrid “crossover” funds alongside its extensive passive business. These funds will contain both public and private investments. With this in mind, the British asset manager is working with specialists such as Blackstone.

Stay away next year from “long” government bonds and from corporate bonds, both high yield and investment grade. Profligate governments and poor risk-return profiles will spoil the mood in those markets.

Buy-and-hold and active management remain the preferred investment strategies among family offices in the Benelux. More than half of their portfolios are allocated to private equity and listed equities.

AI is going to change the world, but which companies will benefit most from that trend? Investors who put money into trends and themes such as AI look for a solid benchmark to determine the purity of their investments. The goal is high purity. That does not always work out.

Disrupted supply chains, volatile market conditions, and lagging investments have made investing in the water theme challenging. In recent years, European investors have withdrawn billions from water funds.