Opinion

October has a bad reputation in the markets. The biggest crashes in history – 1929, 1987, and 2008 – all took place in October. This pattern does not appear to be a coincidence but rather the result of structural factors that make this month particularly volatile.

Stocks are extremely expensive, so it’s just a matter of time before the markets collapse. The next mega market crisis already has a name: the bursting of the AI bubble.

It is March 2020 and Italy is in serious trouble. Italian long-term interest rates are rising rapidly, and the spreads with other eurozone countries are widening.

For decades, it was an iron law for investors: in the long run, the stock market follows economic growth. A thriving economy translated into rising corporate profits and thus higher share prices. But anyone who has watched the past thirty years closely senses a growing friction with this old wisdom.

The Federal Reserve last week cut interest rates from 4.25–4.50 percent to 4.00–4.25 percent and will lower rates further at the remaining meetings of the FOMC, the Fed’s policy body. This comes even as financial conditions have already improved and there is still an extraordinary amount of liquidity on the sidelines.

UK inflation is far too high, and the policy rate is far too low. That might sound odd, but if you look at the regime we’ve been in for more than seventeen years now, the statement makes perfect sense. Let me explain why.

Should you invest in crypto? A fundamental question for every investor. In a paper, Ran Duchin, David H. Solomon, Jun Tu, and Xi Wang reach a surprising and provocative conclusion.

What could hardly be considered a surprise anymore still turned into one. The annual revision of US job growth came in even bigger than expected. As anticipated, it triggered a flood of reactions—though often the wrong ones.

What could hardly be considered a surprise anymore still turned into one. The annual revision of US job growth came in even bigger than expected. As anticipated, it triggered a flood of reactions—though often the wrong ones.

In a world where climate risk is becoming an increasingly prominent factor, I argue that the psychological perception of this risk has a significant and measurable impact on asset prices.