Opinion

“History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” A cliché in financial markets, but no less relevant because of it. The “surprising” surge in confidence among American smallcaps is no exception.

Some macroeconomic indicators carry more weight than others. But does this mean investors always pay attention to the right ones? I doubt it. That’s why, in this column, I focus on a once-reliable recession predictor whose effectiveness is fading, and another indicator that actually determines recessions—but is largely overlooked.

The number of candidates taking CFA exams has declined again, according to the latest figures. At its peak in 2019, over 270,000 individuals registered, but the most recent figure stalled at 163,000. As is often the case, there are likely multiple explanations for this trend.

Financial journalists and market experts have a new gimmick: the “Trump trade”. With another four years of the Trump show ahead, we might derive all sorts of investment ideas from the yet-to-be-implemented policies. But I have my doubts about most of these trades—not only whether they will yield good returns, but also whether they even exist in the first place.

Gregory Kennedy reflects on Luxembourg’s unique identity, its state-driven economy, reliance on cross-border workers, and finance-dominated private sector. Is Luxembourg a “real” country?

Fed Chair Powell has made no secret of it: he and his colleagues aim to bring interest rates back to the elusive, yet undefined, neutral rate. To reinforce this narrative, the FOMC members filled their forecasts with a significant number of expected rate cuts. However, the question now arises: does inflation actually permit this?

Many central banks have begun lowering policy interest rates. The aim is to counteract economic slowdowns or even a potential recession. When both short- and long-term interest rates are consistently below the nominal growth rate of the economy, the situation is referred to as reflation.

Since the news broke that Donald Trump will once again become President of the United States, bitcoin has been impossible to ignore. Not only because of its record-high prices but also because bitcoin’s acceptance as an investment class and alternative form of “value” appears to be accelerating.

The outperformance of private equity should be nuanced, says investment expert Jan Longeval. “But it offers an important advantage that is rarely highlighted.”

The victory of Trump is good news for cryptocurrency. During the election, crypto was a key topic, revolving around SEC Chairman Gary Gensler.