Opinion

The European election results have sent shockwaves through traditional media and financial markets alike, primarily due to the significant shift towards right-wing parties.

While tourists flock to locations steeped in history, investors take the opposite approach; they flock to locations focused on the future.

The stock markets have had a fantastic rally. And while I am all for rising prices, it has also been a bit boring at times. But with the latest set of macro figures, things are getting a bit more exciting again, with a likely good outcome as a result.

I have regularly been called a “permabear” over the past 12 months, if not longer. Because even though the US economy in particular was steaming ahead, the chances of a recession have never been zero, in my opinion. 

There have been many criticisms of capitalism in recent years. These were mainly attempts to get rid of neoliberalism that relied on the solving power of the free market.

In practice, many neoliberals have distanced themselves from the idea of a “natural” free market. For these neoliberals, the market exists thanks to a government that regulates property rights, makes provisions for international trade and also fuels the competitive spirit. Everything and everyone has to compete with each other, even in terms of utilities and the welfare state.

US house prices have climbed over 6% in the past year, pushing the value of homes nearly 3% above their peak from June 2022. This increase came despite the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hikes aimed at curbing rampant inflation. Clearly, the traditional models for predicting house prices are no longer reliable.

Artificial intelligence (AI) is reshaping the financial landscape with promises of efficiency, innovation, and superior decision-making capabilities. However, as the European Securities and Markets Authority (Esma) warned this week, the integration of AI in investment services comes with significant risks. Like a double-edged sword, AI’s greatest strengths can become its most dangerous liabilities if not handled with care.

Imagine standing in the Dutch polder, gazing at a sky illuminated by the ethereal northern lights. It’s a rare event, almost as rare as the European Central Bank (ECB) adjusting interest rates before the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed). Yet, this unusual monetary phenomenon is set to occur when the ECB convenes in June to discuss interest rates.

China’s recent massive sell-off of U.S. government bonds has financial headlines buzzing. This unprecedented move comes on the heels of President Biden’s decision to hike import tariffs on various “strategic” goods, including electric cars, by a staggering 200 to 400 percent.

Ever since the European Securities and Markets Authority, Esma, published its final report on the draft regulatory technical standards, known as the RTS, on 19 December 2023, in particular the redemption policy, minimum holding period and mandatory liquidity management tools, or LMTs, of European Long-Term Investment Funds, or Eltifs, have been points of intense discussion.

In recent months, there has been a notable absence of discourse surrounding the prospect of a recession. The prevailing discussions among economists and financial analysts now revolve around whether we will experience a soft landing or no landing at all. The notion of a hard landing seems to have fallen out of favour. However, it is premature to entirely dismiss the possibility of a recession.