Opinion

Family offices blur traditional financial roles. They are asset owners, asset managers, and wealth advisors simultaneously. Can the industry manage this complexity effectively?

Large language models may seem brilliant at making predictions, but often it’s just memorization. And that has implications for investors relying on LLMs for economic analysis.

Each week, I think about which macro figure or market theme to explore in this column. Then, out of nowhere, another article pops up about that enormous elephant in the room: our debt-fueled economic system is creaking so loudly that it can’t be ignored.

Due to Donald Trump’s erratic policies, all eyes are on the United States bond market, where the bond vigilantes have run wild. But there is also unrest in the Japanese bond market—and perhaps that should worry us even more.

Artificial intelligence continues to be underestimated—both in terms of its scale and the speed of its adoption. We’ve seen this story before. Each time, revolutionary technologies were massively underestimated by analysts, investors, and even the most optimistic visionaries. The same is happening now with artificial intelligence, but at a pace that puts all previous technological revolutions in the shade.

It’s done. With the deciding vote cast—no less—by Vice President J.D. Vance, the “One Big Beautiful Bill” passed in the US Senate. Yet another piece of evidence that bond investors stubbornly refuse to acknowledge: their asset class is becoming obsolete.

For generations of investors, the gospel was simple: invest in a balanced portfolio with 60 percent stocks and 40 percent bonds. This sacred formula was passed down from wealth manager to wealth manager, from father to son, as an immutable law of financial physics. But what happens when artificial intelligence scrutinizes this age-old wisdom?

Falling inflation and the European Central Bank’s (ECB) conviction that price increases will stabilize around two percent annually in the long run made it possible for Frankfurt to announce another rate cut earlier this month. With this move, the policy rate has now been more than halved compared to the summer of 2024. The ECB seems to be casting out the interest rate anchor and allowing itself to drift for a while.

As artificial intelligence takes over functions once handled by offshore teams, asset managers and their services firms face a new frontier, one that blends automation gains with urgent ESG questions.

The spectacular rally in Japanese equities appears to be over after many years of strong gains. Following years of underweight positioning, global investors have finally turned their attention to Japanese stocks, spurred by a recent aversion to U.S. equities—just as momentum is beginning to fade.