Geopolitical Risks

In the financial markets, geopolitical risks often exhibit a binary nature: for a long time, they pose no issue until suddenly, they do. Consequently, the relationship between geopolitical risks and the financial markets’ response is not straightforward. This complexity partly arises because these risks usually stem from singular events, which markets are adept at overlooking. In this context, possession often marks the end of interest.

Supply in bonds and equities

This week, the following chart from the Financial Times caught my attention. It shows the net issuance of shares worldwide since 1999. Although the year is still relatively young, 2024 so far shows the largest negative issuance over this period.

As the chart also indicates, in recent years, it has become more common for more shares to “disappear” (often bought back in buyback programs) than are issued. To be precise, in four of the last nine years.

Dora is ‘around the corner’

The first quarter of 2024 has lapsed and there are only less than three quarters to go for the implementation of the Digital Operational Resilience Act (Dora). Dora will apply to most EU financial entities, including (Ucits) management companies alternative investment fund managers (AIFMs), as well as ICT third-party service providers (including providers of cloud computing services, software, data analytics services and data centres).

Animal spirits

Money’s gotta move—it’s the backbone of our economy, and the speed at which it zips around, known as the turnover or circulation rate, tells us a lot. It’s all about how often a dollar is spent in a certain timeframe. When times are good, money flows like a river—transactions aplenty. But in rougher waters, that river slows to a trickle as folks hold tight to their wallets. Lately, after a sluggish spell, we’re seeing that flow pick up speed again.

We don’t want growth!

Growth has turned into our modern-day holy grail—a beacon that politicians, companies, and individuals relentlessly chase, often with promises and aspirations that border on the fantastical. Every election cycle, candidates tout it as their deliverable. Businesses chase perpetually climbing profits, and personal discontent brews if our earnings stagnate or our living spaces don’t expand. Yet, ironically, the signs increasingly suggest that, deep down, we might not truly crave this endless expansion.

Asset managers don’t come to Luxembourg for the weather

Sparked by a thought-provoking piece from Gregory Kennedy, the debate about Luxembourg as an international fund domicile has been engaging professionals across the industry. We’re thrilled to have Claire Guilbert, a renowned fund law expert and partner at Norton Rose Fulbright, join the conversation, marking the firm’s debut as a Knowledge Partner with Investment Officer Luxembourg.

Repeat offender

France reported a few weeks ago that its already exorbitant budget deficit of 4.9 per cent of French GDP would be breached. And that was no lie. According to statistics agency Insee, the budget for 2023 will go into the minus by a whopping 5.5 per cent. And with that, the chances of France becoming a second Italy are rapidly increasing.

Parts of the fund industry need urgent restructuring

Every now and then, my development team informs me that they need to take a pause from future developments to refactor code. Refactoring is a process where they restructure existing computer code without altering its external behavior.

Over time, small incremental changes to the software’s code base degrade maintainability, readability, and performance. The purpose of refactoring is to enhance code performance without affecting existing functionality, as a clean code base facilitates the addition of new features.

It’s ECB watchers time!

As the last vestiges of winter’s chill give way to the vibrant blooms of spring, the financial community turns its gaze to Frankfurt for the annual “ECB and Its Watchers” conference.

The 2024 edition unfolded under the brilliant skies of Europe’s financial nexus, courtesy of Volker Wieland and the Institute for Monetary and Financial Policy. This year marked the 24th instance of Wieland orchestrating this esteemed gathering, which has become a cornerstone event for Europe’s monetary policymakers.