What’s driving the gold price? … and other important questions
Gold recently hit record highs before pulling back. Supportive conditions persist but volatility may rise. Gold has historically offered long‑term value and a cushion in volatile markets. Physical gold ETPs provide simple price exposure.
La Française: favorable winds for growth
Written by François Rimeu, Senior Strategist, Crédit Mutuel Asset Management
Investors reassess strategic asset allocation as negative correlation returns
With the restoration of the negative correlation between equities and bonds, the structure of strategic asset allocation is once again under debate among asset owners and asset managers. Was the shift away from the traditional 60/40 portfolio towards a permanent allocation to private markets a lasting course correction — or merely a temporary response to an extraordinary period? Investment Officer spoke to four leading investment professionals.
Negative Swiss rates back in focus as Franc surges
The sharp rise in the Swiss franc following U.S.–Israeli strikes on Iran has brought an issue back into focus that many believed had been settled: negative interest rates in Switzerland.
Share prices follow earnings, always
Stocks follow earnings per share. Over the long term, the correlation between earnings growth and share price performance is as high as 98 percent. Everything else is noise. Macro fears, geopolitical tensions, quarterly results that fall short by a fraction — in the long run, they hardly matter. What counts is how much a company earns and how those earnings develop over time.
Oil, gas prices take center stage in market reaction to Iran strikes
Oil and gas prices rose sharply on Monday as investors assessed the implications of U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iran and Tehran’s retaliation, with markets focused on whether the conflict risks widening.
Global Small Caps: Unlocking value through governance engagements in Japan
In recent years we have intensified our active ownership approach with Japanese companies, aiming to boost capital efficiency, improve governance structures and enhance shareholder returns.
Iran’s oil shock puts the Teflon-market thesis to the test
Markets enter the week facing not simply another geopolitical headline, but the prospect of a structural energy repricing. After US-Israeli strikes killed Iran’s supreme leader and Tehran retaliated across the region, investors are bracing for a sharp adjustment in oil and gas markets when trading resumes. The issue is no longer whether risk premia rise, but how disruptive and persistent they may become. “The implications for energy markets and commodities, especially for crude oil and LNG flows, are asymmetric and could trigger severe market reactions very soon,” said Cyril Widdershoven, a senior advisor at Blue Water Strategies.
The Blue Owl saga has become a real-time test of semi-liquid funds
When a US private credit fund closed its exit window to investors, confidence immediately came under pressure. The question is no longer just what went wrong, but whether the mechanisms underpinning these semi-liquid funds are functioning precisely as intended.
Chart of the week: the outlines of a new credit bubble
AI is not a bubble by definition. But the investment wave surrounding it is. The first hairline cracks are now clearly visible, and comparisons with the run-up to the global financial crisis are becoming hard to dismiss.