Investissement

À l’aune de leur performance en dollar, les fonds ciblant les obligations des marchés émergents ont terminé dans le rouge pour le troisième trimestre de suite. En euro toutefois, ils ont légèrement progressé. 

The future has never been more uncertain, and that has more to do with the climate than the business cycle, argues Paul De Grauwe, one of Belgium’s top economists. “Not inflation, but climate is the biggest challenge we face today,” he said. “The entire market system could perish.”

Corporate profits will not fall even if economic growth declines, because of inflation. That is the thinking many investors have when it comes to expected earnings growth for the next 12 months, which is still positive. But I think we are now past the stage where profits are still driven by inflation.

Asset services provider Apex Group has announced a collaboration with BlackRock’s eFront to provide its ESG data consulting services to investors in private markets.

The big difference between bonds and equities is that cash flows in bonds are fixed in advance. It makes inflation the great enemy of bonds. With equities, the effect of inflation is more complex. Companies that raise prices often realise higher sales as a result. But with a lag, inflation, in the form of rising wages and rising interest rates, creates margin pressure, as do rising energy prices.

The EU’s sustainable finance framework is widely recognised as immensely complex. For private equity firms, it’s even more so, especially now that more and more investors demand that their investments are made in funds with sustainable assets. 

Luxembourg-based Cube Infrastructure Managers has agreed to acquire Firstcolo Datacenters GmbH, a Frankfurt-based data centre business providing colocation, dedicated servers, managed services and private cloud solutions, for an undisclosed amount.

The private loan market is being revalued. Risks are becoming more expensive and coupons are shooting up. Positive for pension funds and insurers that stay put until maturity, but investors in this category also sometimes have distressed moments. 

Pour les marchés émergents, le troisième trimestre a presque été l’inverse du deuxième. Le MSCI EM est resté dans l’ombre du MSCI World, notamment du fait des lourdes pertes enregistrées par les actions chinoises. En Amérique latine, en revanche, plusieurs marchés ont compensé les pertes du deuxième trimestre, entre juin et septembre. La guerre en Ukraine pèse toujours sur les marchés d’Europe de l’Est.

Equity markets are still overvalued despite the deep declines we have seen this year. That is the view of Andrew Balls, CIO of Pimco, world’s largest active bond investor. According to him, both a mild recession, and falling earnings expectations are not yet sufficiently priced in.