Répartition des actifs

US government debt is rising rapidly and the economy has come to a virtual standstill because of the coronavirus. However, treasury yields have never been this low. Yet, real alternatives to treasuries as a safe haven investment have yet to emerge, according to Quentin Fitzsimmons.

Selon Pablo Duarte, senior research analist au Flossbach von Storch Research Institute, les nuages noirs s’amoncellent au-dessus des marchés émergents (EM). La combinaison d’une dette élevée, d’un dollar fort et d’un ralentissement économique peut mettre de nombreux pays dans une situation difficile. En tant qu’investisseur, il s’agira d’examiner chaque pays individuellement.

Chief economists are all waiting for the gradual lifting of lockdown measures. But otherwise, there’s little that unites them. Some are optimistic for the recovery to continue, while other believe markets are ahead of themselves.

The corona crisis is severely compromising the growth prospects of the world economy. ‹The stagnation of new infections in the main industrialised countries is good news, although concerns about certain emerging countries such as Russia, India and Brazil remain,› says Keith Wade (pictured), chief economist at Schroders.

Avec une performance en équilibre depuis le début 2020, Jupiter Dynamic Bond a confirmé son statut attractif dans le domaine des fonds obligataires flexibles et globalement diversifiés. Selon son gestionnaire, il est toutefois encore prématuré de relever trop rapidement le niveau de risque du portefeuille.

Companies with above average sustainability profile held up better during the first month of the corona crisis. The crisis thus confirms the importance of ESG integration not only from a climatic and social perspective, but also from a financial perspective.

Keith Wade (Schroders), Simon Ward (Janus Henderson) et Shamik Dhar (BNY Mellon) donnent leur analyse de la crise actuelle. Les investisseurs doivent aujourd’hui se montrer constructifs et regarder les marchés émergents qui devraient profiter du rebond économique et l’une stabilisation du dollar. 

A quarter of the 600 largest listed companies in Europe have already suspended or cancelled dividend payments for this year, according to a study by Germany’s DZ Bank. As a consequence, total dividend payouts are to fall by some €310 billion.

The bank’s analysts write that ‹an unprecedented cancellation of dividend payments is rolling over European stock markets›. They estimate 2019 payouts to fall by 23%, or €310 billion. 

Paul Jackson, responsable mondial de la recherche sur l’allocation d’actifs chez Invesco, se demande, après la récente reprise des marchés, si la crise est déjà passée. Il ne donne pas d’emblée une réponse positive et estime que les marchés, soutenus par l’intervention massive des autorités monétaires, tablent déjà trop sur une reprise économique forte et rapide.

The earnings season has started in Europe. But it’s a rather strange one. ‹All companies have stopped issuing guidance,› observes Gilles Guibout, head of European shares at AXA IM. ‹That makes it difficult for bottom-up investors. So more than ever, we need a top-down approach now.›

The first US earnings results came in published last week. As always, the major banks were first, showing disappointing results and withdrawing guidance for the second quarter. The consequence: analysts look into a black hole of uncertainty.