Opinion

Met een nieuwe Fed-voorzitter in aantocht, mits goedgekeurd door de Amerikaanse Senaat, leek het mij een goed moment om nog eens naar ‘de’ inflatie te kijken. En dan vooral naar inflatieverwachtingen, omdat die in hoge mate het gedrag van consumenten, maar ook van beleggers, bepalen. Wat ik zie, stemt bepaald niet gerust.

The comparison is increasingly common. Luxembourg is often described as the Singapore of Europe. It is meant as praise, and rightly so. But the comparison deserves refinement, because it cuts both ways.

Jerome Powell is stepping down as chair of the Federal Reserve. Kevin Warsh will succeed him. For investors, the big question is whether US central bank policy will really change. The short answer: yes, possibly. And the reason is AI.

Almost daily, I find myself amazed at how people simply refuse to see certain things. On the street, in politics, but also in the financial markets.

The European Central Bank (ECB) finds it wonderful to see that the euro is gaining popularity around the world, now that the image of the US and, in its wake, the dollar, is suffering from US policy and the country’s stance on the global stage.

Donald Trump likes to present himself as a leader guided by instinct and personal conviction. International treaties, diplomatic traditions, and established norms are, in his view, merely suggestions that he can ignore at will. This attitude lies at the heart of his political identity: America first, and whatever Trump believes is good for America is what will happen.

When everyone expects the same thing, it is time to think differently. A good example comes from Value Line, a company that makes stock market forecasts. They predict higher returns when valuations are low. Individual investors do exactly the opposite.

An insignificant Danish pension fund dumps all its US Treasuries. Financial media eagerly jump on this headline, because that is not something most investors would just expect. About the underlying structural cause, which has little to do with a president gone off the rails, you hear a lot less.

In Asia, Luxembourg’s challenge is not explaining its rules, but translating stability, judgment and trust across cultures and expectations globally, Christophe Santer finds.

The global economy is facing significant challenges. Geopolitical tensions are often palpable, and the sharp rise in precious metal prices suggests that fear is widespread, likely driven by a range of perceived threats.