Investissement

Increasing variations in interest rates on government bonds the Eurozone have reawakened fears of bankruptcy in the periphery of the eurozone. The ECB says it will do everything it can to contain this threat of fragmentation. It remains uncertain though whether financial markets will continue to swallow the ECB›s narrative. These are painful times for bond investors, but there are opportunities.

Quintet Private Bank sees “significant long-term opportunities” in a world that has experienced multiple ‘black-swan’ type events – Covid-19, the invasion of Ukraine and a miniature version in China’s decision to lock down Shanghai in late March. Presenting the firm’s outlook, Ilario Attasi, group head of investment advisors, and Nicolas Sopel, senior macro strategist, said investors can still find opportunities in tech stocks, among others.

The Federal Reserve is doing something else than what it says it is doing. At last week’s FOMC meeting, Fed chief Jerome Powell said that “the committee is not trying to cause a recession”. Yet it is clear that the Fed is directly linking a recession to lower inflation risks and that the Fed does want to fight inflation.

Les marchés d’actions souffrent de la moindre propension au risque des investisseurs cette année. Mais malgré la guerre qui fait rage aux frontières de l’Europe, les valeurs européennes affichent une relative bonne santé. Toutefois, ce constat s’applique surtout pour les grandes capitalisations : les actions des entreprises plus petites s’enfoncent nettement dans le rouge.

L’accélération de la chute des cours des actions aux États-Unis s’est traduite par le bond de géant de 75 points de base effectué par le taux directeur américain pour tenter d’endiguer l’inflation galopante. Le fait que la banque centrale va effectivement procéder à ce relèvement inédit a été confirmé dans l’intervalle après la réunion du FOMC du 15 juin.

Franklin Templeton, one of the world’s ten largest asset managers, this week outlined its views on investing at a time that inflation threatens to undermine economic growth. Investors who haven’t already done so need to adapt their portfolios to take account of the new inflation-fighting interest rate environment, at least in the short term. Underpinning its investment outlook is the expectation of more balanced monetary policy risks later this year.

Comme nous l’avions prédit dans notre rapport annuel de décembre, l‹ «inflation» est l’un des thèmes clés de 2022. En mai, l’indice des prix à la consommation a augmenté de près de 9 %, dans la continuité des mois précédents où des hausses similaires avaient été enregistrées.

Net assets of worldwide investment funds decreased by 2.5 percent in the first quarter as the decline in the United States and Europe was only partly offset by net inflows in the Asia-Pacific region, according to the latest International Statistical Release published by the European Fund and Asset Management Association, known as Efama. Bond and money market saw strong net outflows during the first three months, although China bucked the with rising inflows for money market funds.

L’Autorité des services et marchés financiers (FSMA) publie un aperçu trimestriel des OPC publics belges qui montre que les actifs sous gestion ont diminué. 

It’s not difficult to compare today’s era to the 1970s. An energy crisis, a hot war, a cold war, persistent inflation, soaring interest rates, rising house prices. Even Abba, with its flared trousers, is performing again, albeit as a hologram. For investors, a rerun of the 1970s would require a profound rethink.