Opinion

Après une longue période de baisse des prix, les nouvelles n’ont pas besoin d’être bonnes. Il suffit que les nouvelles soient moins mauvaises que prévu. À cet égard, trois arguments permettent de penser que le creux des marchés d’actions et d’obligations est peut-être déjà derrière nous. 

The data leaves no doubt about it. This year is a tough one for investors everywhere. It’s very clear in the numbers reported this week, both for Europe and for Luxembourg, the domicile for about 10.000 Ucits funds, about one third of all such funds in Europe. Luxembourg’s loss of total fund value this year now is roughly equivalent to the size of an economy like Taiwan. At a European level, the losses can be compared to an economy the size of Canada.

Certes, il reste encore plusieurs semaines avant de tourner définitivement la page de cette année 2022, mais ce temps nous paraît trop court pour espérer un retournement de la tendance sur les marchés financiers pour les sortir de la zone rouge vif.

In an earlier column here I defended Liz Truss andI expressed support not so much for the content of her policies as for their intention. Truss wanted to promote the growth capacity of the UK economy and ensure that working would pay more. My support for Truss went completely against the consensus as virtually everyone I heard about her was scathing.

Corporate profits will not fall even if economic growth declines, because of inflation. That is the thinking many investors have when it comes to expected earnings growth for the next 12 months, which is still positive. But I think we are now past the stage where profits are still driven by inflation.

The big difference between bonds and equities is that cash flows in bonds are fixed in advance. It makes inflation the great enemy of bonds. With equities, the effect of inflation is more complex. Companies that raise prices often realise higher sales as a result. But with a lag, inflation, in the form of rising wages and rising interest rates, creates margin pressure, as do rising energy prices.

The ISM Manufacturing Index is not only an important indicator of future growth, but is also highly correlated with market returns. What many investors overlook: it’s not just correlated with equity returns, but also bonds.

By using indicators that say something about the direction of the ISM Manufacturing Index to define different ISM scenarios, you can derive implied returns for each asset class.

In-house valuation teams, with experts for every asset class, will become a standard feature among Alternative Investment Fund Managers, known as AIFMs, write Universal Investment’s Gerrit van Vliet and Krzystof Czerner in today’s contribution as knowledge experts to Investment Officer Luxembourg. «Fair value calculations are not only necessary to pass regulatory audits, but also to provide a value-added to investors and their relationship with the AIFM.»

L’indice ISM Manufacturing est non seulement un indicateur important de la croissance future, mais il est également fortement corrélé aux rendements du marché. Ce que beaucoup d’investisseurs négligent : il ne s’agit pas seulement du rendement des actions.

En utilisant des indicateurs qui donnent une idée de l’orientation de l’indice ISM manufacturier pour définir différents scénarios ISM, vous pouvez obtenir des rendements implicites pour chaque classe d’actifs.

Pourquoi tant d’investisseurs investissent-ils activement ? La recherche académique a déjà suffisamment démontré que l’investissement actif a conduit à des performances bien plus mauvaises en moyenne, en particulier sur le long terme. Ce billet avance deux théories : (1) les investisseurs surestiment leurs propres connaissances, et (2) la faillite de l’hypothèse du marché efficient montre qu’il y aura toujours un pourcentage de gestion active.