Opinion

La question de savoir si 2023 sera une meilleure année que la précédente ne trouvera sa réponse avec certitude que dans une cinquantaine de semaines. En effet, une réponse franchement décevante à une question pourtant parfaitement responsable. Cela confirme la caricature selon laquelle les économistes ne peuvent prédire avec précision que lorsqu’il s’agit du passé. 

“The UBS phase is over,” a Quintet banker told me last week.

Il était clair depuis un certain temps que 2022 n’était pas une bonne année pour les actions immobilières, mais il y a mauvais et il y a très mauvais. L’évolution de l’indice FTSE EPRA NAREIT Developed Europe depuis 1990 montre à quel point la situation est mauvaise. Et qu’est-ce qui en ressort ? Après 2008, 2022 est la pire année avec une perte d’environ 40 %, en 2008 la perte a atteint 42 %. 

The demand for ESG-compliant investments is growing, especially among professional investors. The urgency of climate change and the regulatory requirements are driving the development for responsible investing. 

No, this is not a column about the Netherlands› performance at the World Cup. Although, of course, the title fits this seamlessly. This column is about China and its Covid issues.

Luxembourg last week was buzzing with speculation and market talk. A major deal is said to be in the making that could change the international leadership tables among Alternative Investment Fund Managers, AIFMs. “Is your firm going to be bought?” 

The new Luxembourg Valuation Professionals Association, or LVPA, was launched this week. It’s is a boost to the grand duchy’s reputation as a private equity powerhouse, demonstrating that we have outgrown the early days of “let’s figure out what’s going on here”, and want to live up to the high expectations of the international investor community, writes Nic Müller, CEO of Avega Capital Management SA.

With the prominent focus on ESG, asset managers find themselves in a challenging position: On the one hand, they rely increasingly on ESG ratings, not only for meeting regulations but also for establishing trust and satisfying the growing customer demand for sustainable products. On the other hand, ratings based on the evaluation of past data can always only be retrospective. Real-time signals and their impact on a company’s sustainability cannot be considered.

Although inflation has made its comeback in Western economies after decades of oblivion (the great moderation), in public discourse on the housing market, the impact of current inflation levels is quite often ignored. In particular, people talk about the nominal price level of the housing market without looking at the real price level. 

As might be expected, the US 10-year - 3-month yield curve has also turned negative. This inversion means that the two traditional yield curves with the longest and most reliable track record as recession predictors are now negative. By itself that’s is no reason to sell equities, or any asset class for that matter.